Overview

In 2009 the National Planning Department (NPD, Departamento Nacional de Planeación) and the Office for Disaster Risk Management (ODRM, Dirección de Gestión del Riesgo) presented a request to the World Bank and GFDRR for supporting a technical assistance processes using an open-source risk assessment platform to integrate probabilistic risk modeling  into specific policy-making processes. In 2010 the World Bank and GFDRR sent a formal proposal to NPD and ODRM for the implementation of four municipal Technical Assistance Projects (TAPs), and a total grant amount of US$500,000 was approved. Activities of the Probabilistic Risk Assessment Initiative (CAPRA) began in February 2011 and will be completed by June 2012.

Challenge

Colombia has made some significant advances in disaster risk management since the formulation of the National Plan for Prevention and Relief in 1989 (following the devastating Popayan earthquake of 1983). Disaster risk management as a topic has been incorporated into the last four National Development Plans (1998 to 2014). Important efforts have been made on improving the monitoring of natural hazards, the enforcement of building codes (since 1984), and organizing local disaster response capacity. This has led to a success in reducing the loss of lives. However, the damages and losses to property and livelihoods due to natural hazards are still growing every year. The dramatic increase in the number of disaster-related damages reported in Colombia over the past decade is not due to a change in the hazard patterns. It is a result of inadequate land use planning and urban population growth.

Approach

Since 1997, the priority has therefore been to strengthen the incorporation of DRM into municipal land use plans (POTs) and developing associated risk management strategies. The World Bank has provided financial support to 795 municipalities (out of a total of 1,102 municipalities in Colombia) to formulate risk management strategies and incorporate DRM into the POTs. This process has advanced rapidly in some larger cities, which are among the leaders in DRM in Latin America. However, approximately 95% (1,050) of Colombian municipalities have had significant difficulties in making any progress on disaster risk management due to low technical capacities and a lack of investment.

Results

Probabilistic Risk Modeling for the Galeras Volcano (Pasto, Colombia)

The outcomes for this Technical Assistance Project are mainly:

• The strengthening of capacities on probabilistic risk modeling of all the institutions in charge of volcanic risk management;
• Significantly increasing the quality of the vulnerability analysis on volcanic ash and pyroclastic flows;Coverage of the beneficiaries: The 400,000 inhabitants of the municipalities of Pasto, La Florida, Sandona, Consaca, Yacuanquer, and Tangua;
• Deployment of US$120,000 in World Bank resources, with the National Government of Colombia also giving financial support.  

 Probabilistic Modeling for Seismic Risk for the Municipality of Pereira

The outcomes for this Technical Assistance Project are mainly:

• Updating the seismic microzonification for the municipality of Pereira, which will be incorporated in Pereira's POT;
• Improving the knowledge of the more than 100 public buildings for the education and health portfolio and the definition of strategies of reducing risk in public buildings;
• Coverage of the beneficiaries: The 450,000 inhabitants of the municipality of Pereira, Colombia.

Voices

  The CAPRA initiative helps to bring knowledge of probabilistic risk management to many different types of people working in the public sector (not only to experts), which will help public administrators develop informed public policies on disaster risk management.                                                         
                                                          — Julian Escallón, Civil Engineer of the Office for Disaster Risk Management

 I think the CAPRA initiative is a very useful tool and helps us apply all the knowledge that we have on hazard
evaluation for volcanic risk evaluation. 
                                                            — María Luisa Monsalve, Geologist at INGEOMINAS

Toward the Future

The possibilities for the next steps for the CAPRA initiative are huge, especially in the support and technical assistance processes using an open-source risk assessment platform to integrated probabilistic risk information into specific policy-making processes.