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Risk Modeling

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Why should probabilistic risks analysis be performed?

  • Apr142012
  • Author:
    Mario.Ordaz's picture
  • Comments: 0
  • Categories: Risk Assessment, Risk Modeling

Why should probabilistic risks analysis be performed?

For purposes of discussion, three reasons are proposed:

1.                  Regardless of our ideological view of disasters and their causes, we would all agree that preferences can be established, so that for a given frequency of occurrence (e.g., a disaster occurring once every ten years), we prefer a disaster of small impact to one of major impact. Therefore, the scale of a disaster is relevant, and we have an obligation to establish ways to measure that scale.

2.                  For a disaster of a specific scale, we would also prefer it to occur infrequently rather than frequently.  Therefore, a disaster’s frequency of occurrence is relevant and must be taken into account in any risk assessment.

3.         A high degree of uncertainty is present in virtually every risk assessment made. If we are to act rationally, this uncertainty cannot be ignored; instead, it must be acknowledged, processed, and incorporated in our assessments.

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On this section you will find information about Probabilistic Risk Assessment or about the CAPRA Initiative.

Probabilistic Modeling for Disaster Risk Management, The Case of Bogota, Colombia

Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and other disasters are natural phenomena, but they include a social dimension as they also affect the poorest or least prepared communities.

Recent events such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010, Chile’s on 27 February 2010, New Zealand’s on 13 June 2011 and Japan’s on 11 March 2011, as well as the 2010 and 2011 floods in Pakistan, Thailand and Colombia, illustrate the profound effect that this type of events can have on national development plans, as well as the need for countries to adopt and consolidate proactive risk management policies.

Under this scenario, Los Andes University and the World Bank, with support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), are publishing the “Probabilistic Modeling for Disaster Risk Management. The Case of Bogota, Colombia.”

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Colombia Strengthens Disaster Risk Management in Pereira. Project Highlights, issue 14 - February 2013

Preview of the Project Highlight

The Municipality of Pereira, capital of the Department of Risaralda in West Central Colombia has experienced a long and destructive history of earthquakes. Pereira’s high seismicity is the result of a large number of both deep and surface seismic sources.

The high magnitude earthquakes are directly related to the actions of the Nazca Plate, a tectonic plate off the South American coast, pushing under the South American continent through a process called subduction. The surface, or cortical, earthquakes are caused by faults not too far from the city. The response of the soil to earthquakes is determined mainly by the material at the surface or near the surface, such as ash fall and pyroclastic material of variable size deposited over the years by the nearby volcanoes.

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Modelación Probabilista del Riesgo Sísimico de la Ciudad de David

Excerpt of the executive summary in Spanish / Extracto del resumen ejecutivo en español:

Tradicionalmente el impacto de los desastres ha sido absorbido por los gobiernos, en la actualidad se pretende que esos costos sean compartidos y con tal propósito procuran identificar diversos mecanismos, como por ejemplo los sistemas de seguros y reaseguros, prestamos contingentes, fondos emergentes, y otros que puedan ser implementados de acuerdo a las capacidades de los países. La estimación de las pérdidas probables asociadas con eventos adversos es por tanto necesaria para poder definir las mejores políticas para reducir ese riesgo y diseñar los mejores instrumentos de protección financiera. En este ejercicio se estiman las pérdidas máximas probables y las pérdidas anuales esperadas para los sectores de vivienda, salud y educación causadas por un terremoto en la ciudad de David.

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